Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.023900 0.027167 0.030732 0.034914 0.039686 0.044968 0.051263
2025-02-16 0.018493 0.022888 0.028116 0.034808 0.043161 0.053268 0.066461
2025-02-23 0.015652 0.020513 0.026646 0.034974 0.046024 0.060237 0.079992
2025-03-02 0.013431 0.018440 0.025065 0.034507 0.047677 0.065489 0.091562
2025-03-09 0.012125 0.017332 0.024510 0.035180 0.050730 0.072707 0.106382
2025-03-16 0.010780 0.015967 0.023385 0.034829 0.052169 0.077657 0.118338
2025-03-23 0.010061 0.015400 0.023296 0.035910 0.055723 0.085934 0.136027
2025-03-30 0.008914 0.014052 0.021884 0.034791 0.055736 0.088744 0.145398
2025-04-06 0.008084 0.013101 0.020968 0.034317 0.056654 0.092970 0.157372
2025-04-13 0.007199 0.011966 0.019641 0.033021 0.056056 0.094605 0.165082
2025-04-20 0.006885 0.011736 0.019752 0.034109 0.059532 0.103326 0.185863
2025-04-27 0.006570 0.011470 0.019769 0.035017 0.062759 0.111879 0.207188
2025-05-04 0.006281 0.011233 0.019830 0.036042 0.066349 0.121534 0.231820
2025-05-11 0.005820 0.010648 0.019229 0.035812 0.067626 0.127111 0.249390
2025-05-18 0.005467 0.010224 0.018873 0.035990 0.069663 0.134272 0.270776
2025-05-25 0.005060 0.009661 0.018209 0.035508 0.070361 0.138890 0.287504
2025-06-01 0.004840 0.009435 0.018154 0.036202 0.073440 0.148477 0.315526
2025-06-08 0.004514 0.008971 0.017600 0.035841 0.074326 0.153688 0.334780
2025-06-15 0.004380 0.008877 0.017763 0.036953 0.078375 0.165828 0.370484
2025-06-22 0.004019 0.008289 0.016883 0.035801 0.077482 0.167366 0.382555
2025-06-29 0.003756 0.007883 0.016339 0.035313 0.077975 0.171936 0.402042
2025-07-06 0.003436 0.007330 0.015443 0.033978 0.076455 0.171880 0.410612
2025-07-13 0.003360 0.007296 0.015647 0.035098 0.080606 0.185060 0.452513